Archive for February, 2010

Leveraged ETF = Getting Rich Quickly?

February 27th, 2010

Direxion Funds ProShares Horizons BetaPro

Are you familiar with leveraged ETF? For those who don’t know, here is the description from Investopedia.com:

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that utilizes financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index.

These ETFs are usually double (2x) or triple (3x) the underlying index. For example:

  • SSO is a double (2x) leverage ETF of S&P 500 from ProShares. It means, when S&P 500 goes up 1% on a single day; this ETF goes up 2% in price. On the other hand, when S&P drops 2%, this ETF drops 4%.
  • EDC is triple (3x) leverage ETF of MSCI Emerging Markets Index from Direxion. It means when the index goes up 1%, this ETF goes up 3% in price. The same is true for the downside.

Is this an easy to way to get rich quickly? When these ETFs were pretty new in the market a couple of years ago, we think it is. We were dreaming that we could easily beat the index by investing in these ETFs. We didn’t do more research at that time. We invested *a lot* of money in a couple of leveraged ETFs. What happened then? We were totally doomed, especially during the recession.

These ETFs amplify the underlying index only on a single day. It doesn’t accumulate for longer period of time. Let’s take an example:

  • Day 0: S&P 500 is at 1,000. Our triple leveraged ETF for S&P 500 is at $100.
  • Day 1: S&P 500 goes down by 10% to 900. Our ETF drops 30% to $70.
  • Day 2: S&P 500 goes up by 12% to 1008. Our ETF goes up by 36% to $95.2.

As you can see, after the second day, S&P 500 is higher than day 0; but our ETF is still below day 0.

The chart below the comparison of SSO and S&P 500 from June 2006 to today. As you can see here, the return of S&P 500 in this period is –11.66%. However, the return of SSE is –46.93%.

Be really careful when investing in leveraged ETFs. We don’t invest in any of leveraged ETFs today.

SSP versus S&P 500

Stay Invested with the Index

February 26th, 2010

S&P

We just read a news from The Globe And Mail about performance of Canadian equity funds. Many actively managed mutual funds in Canada cannot beat the index, i.e. S&P/TSX composite index. Here is the result:

  • Year 2009: 39.2% of actively managed funds beat the index
  • Over 3 years: 12.5% of actively managed funds beat the index
  • Over 5 years: 7.7% of actively managed funds beat the index

That’s why; we recommend to invest in the index. As you can also see from our portfolio, most of our money is currently parked in the index as well. Only small amount of money that is used for speculation, including stock picking and timing the market. That’s why; we still have stock picks and participate in the Canadian blogger’s stock picks contest.

Canadian Housing Prices Has Recovered?

February 24th, 2010

Canadian Housing Price 

We just found an interesting Web site, housepriceindex.ca, that provides house price index in Canada. We checked a couple of big cities, such as Vancouver and Toronto. It’s a little bit surprising that housing prices in many cities have recovered. Some are even higher compared to 2008 when the recession started. You can see the house price index for Toronto in the chart above.

We are surprised because the recovery looks like to be in V-shape. We were expecting something like L-shape or U-shape.

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